Well here we are halfway through the first month of 2012 and I am writing another blog. First one of the year but hopefully not the last.
Even though fantasy football has ended, fantasy basketball has begun. I am in 2 leagues but it isn't as much fun this year as in years past. Don't know if it is the lockout or what.
I am also happy to say that so far this year I have spent a little time each night looking over stocks and making trades. I have done so well so far. I highly recommend MarketClub.com. It is a very easy website to navigate around and it is fairly easy to look at charts and trends. If you are looking for a site to tell you what to trade, this is NOT for you. But if you want a site that may point out some new trends and let you come up with your own conclusions, definitely check them out.
Along with the new year comes Crossfit. They put a Crossfit gym up by my house and I am in the process of using the 2 week trial. I must say that I like it, a lot actually. My wife and I do the 5AM class and it feels good to get the morning work out in and done.
Given the early alarm, that is all for now. I hope the following blogs will have a little more content. :)
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Thursday, December 15, 2011
ASU has a New Head Coach
After 17 days ASU finally hired a new coach. I will be honest, when I read the name for the first time, I had no idea who the guy was. I will be even more honest, I still don't have a clue who this guy is. Sure, I know he was at Tulsa and then Pitt for a year. Not helping. But he is the coach so I will stand behind him. But first a few thoughts on how the whole thing went down.
I was probably one of the few people who didn't want Kevin Sumlin. In my opinion, we have had him before, his name was Dirk Koetter. The up and comer from a mid major who tears through a softer schedule and is the next big thing. Sure Sumlin was better with the media, but that doesn't win football games. I didn't want June Jones, we've had him before too, his name was Dennis Erickson. An older coach with an impressive resume but has really been out of the mainstream for awhile. And on top of that, Jones has been the only non automatic qualifier whose team played in a BCS game and wasn't even competitive. I will say this though, if he was indeed offered the job it was extremely poor taste of ASU to pull it off the table.
My vote was actually for Jim Tressel. Yes, I am well aware of his baggage. But he would have moved the needle. Even with the baggage he would have peaked fans interest. I see Tressel kind of like Shaq when he came to the Suns. Everyone knew Shaq wasn't the Shaq of old, but he still peaked our interest for the first year. Unlike Shaq though, I think Tressel could have delivered. If you can recruit to Columbus, OH you can recruit to Tempe. And truth be told, except for a guy named Kush, he would have instantly become the best coach ASU has ever had. He's won big games. He lived in the BCS. He knows how to coach, no one can deny that. And by the time the whole Jones thing happened, was there really any face to save for ASU nationally?
I am willing to give Graham a chance. My response to the "job hopper" is this... if in 3 years a bigger school is coming after him, he must be winning. Not since John Cooper has a coach left of his own will to go to a better job. So if he leaves for a Texas or USC or Florida, I can guarantee our program is the best it has been in a very long time. Now, as for how he left Pitt, there are a lot of stories out there. If the worst thing Graham does is resign from a job and let kids know by text message he is leaving, I'll take that. Is it ideal? No. But was anything with this search ideal? Absolutely not.
The one thing this coaching search has done is verify what only a few locally have been willing to admit. ASU is not a big time program. It is not a job coaches dream about. It is not a place the 5 star athletes want to come. It is the 4th best show in town. If Graham can win and win early, he has the chance to turn it into something big. There is definitely talent in this cupboard. That is one thing Erickson did do, bring talent here. The question is can Graham coach it.
I was probably one of the few people who didn't want Kevin Sumlin. In my opinion, we have had him before, his name was Dirk Koetter. The up and comer from a mid major who tears through a softer schedule and is the next big thing. Sure Sumlin was better with the media, but that doesn't win football games. I didn't want June Jones, we've had him before too, his name was Dennis Erickson. An older coach with an impressive resume but has really been out of the mainstream for awhile. And on top of that, Jones has been the only non automatic qualifier whose team played in a BCS game and wasn't even competitive. I will say this though, if he was indeed offered the job it was extremely poor taste of ASU to pull it off the table.
My vote was actually for Jim Tressel. Yes, I am well aware of his baggage. But he would have moved the needle. Even with the baggage he would have peaked fans interest. I see Tressel kind of like Shaq when he came to the Suns. Everyone knew Shaq wasn't the Shaq of old, but he still peaked our interest for the first year. Unlike Shaq though, I think Tressel could have delivered. If you can recruit to Columbus, OH you can recruit to Tempe. And truth be told, except for a guy named Kush, he would have instantly become the best coach ASU has ever had. He's won big games. He lived in the BCS. He knows how to coach, no one can deny that. And by the time the whole Jones thing happened, was there really any face to save for ASU nationally?
I am willing to give Graham a chance. My response to the "job hopper" is this... if in 3 years a bigger school is coming after him, he must be winning. Not since John Cooper has a coach left of his own will to go to a better job. So if he leaves for a Texas or USC or Florida, I can guarantee our program is the best it has been in a very long time. Now, as for how he left Pitt, there are a lot of stories out there. If the worst thing Graham does is resign from a job and let kids know by text message he is leaving, I'll take that. Is it ideal? No. But was anything with this search ideal? Absolutely not.
The one thing this coaching search has done is verify what only a few locally have been willing to admit. ASU is not a big time program. It is not a job coaches dream about. It is not a place the 5 star athletes want to come. It is the 4th best show in town. If Graham can win and win early, he has the chance to turn it into something big. There is definitely talent in this cupboard. That is one thing Erickson did do, bring talent here. The question is can Graham coach it.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Bull Slingshot
So a couple of years ago I spent 3 days with a trading mentor and learned a handful of really cool strategies for trading/investing. Side note, if you are thinking about getting into trading do NOT cheap out on truly educating yourself with the market and how to trade. But I will save that for another post.
Tuesday I decided to dust off the notes from that session and tried out one of the strategies I had learned called a Bull Slingshot. The premise of this trade is to find a stock you are extremely bullish on and using a combination of stocks and options slingshot your profits sky high. The key is for the underlying stock to rise high enough so that the profit of the stock covers the cost of buying the options. Lets look at an example.
Stock ABC is currently selling at $15/share and the Jan12 20 call option is selling for $1. We buy 100 shares of stock for a cost of $1,500 and 2 options for a cost of $200 ($1*100 shares in an option *2) for a total outlay of $1,700. If the price of ABC stock goes up to $17, we sell our 100 shares for and receive $1,700, or our initial cash outlay. This is when this trade really gets fun. You are now left with 2 call options that are essentially risk free. Since your profit in the stocks covered the cost of the options, you can let the options ride. And if we think about this, if the stock price has risen $2, then your call options have increased in value as well so you also have the option of closing the entire position out.
The key to this trade is finding a stock that is an an uptrend. In order for this strategy to work the stock must be going up. You can also do the opposite in a Bear slingshot (short the stock and buy puts), but shorting stock is always a risky proposition.
Tuesday I decided to dust off the notes from that session and tried out one of the strategies I had learned called a Bull Slingshot. The premise of this trade is to find a stock you are extremely bullish on and using a combination of stocks and options slingshot your profits sky high. The key is for the underlying stock to rise high enough so that the profit of the stock covers the cost of buying the options. Lets look at an example.
Stock ABC is currently selling at $15/share and the Jan12 20 call option is selling for $1. We buy 100 shares of stock for a cost of $1,500 and 2 options for a cost of $200 ($1*100 shares in an option *2) for a total outlay of $1,700. If the price of ABC stock goes up to $17, we sell our 100 shares for and receive $1,700, or our initial cash outlay. This is when this trade really gets fun. You are now left with 2 call options that are essentially risk free. Since your profit in the stocks covered the cost of the options, you can let the options ride. And if we think about this, if the stock price has risen $2, then your call options have increased in value as well so you also have the option of closing the entire position out.
The key to this trade is finding a stock that is an an uptrend. In order for this strategy to work the stock must be going up. You can also do the opposite in a Bear slingshot (short the stock and buy puts), but shorting stock is always a risky proposition.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Dynasty Talk
I came away with a win this week in my dynasty league despite having Ryan Torrain and Julio Jones putting up 0's. Now I knew Jones was doubtful, but my other option was Andre Johnson and I knew he was out. Every other WR I had was on a bye or all ready in the game. So I was happy to get the win. I am in a tie for 4th place right now. I thought this would be a low year for me so I am happy with where I am at. Now for some strategy...
I picked up Christian Ponder for Kevin Kolb on the waiver wire. Ponder looked ok in his start against Green Bay and Kolb has looked anything but. Being a Cardinal fan I hope he turns it around but this is fantasy land. So I now have Ponder and Andy Dalton along with Matt Schaub. Not bad for this year and hopefully going forward.
Another owner dropped Mikel Leshoure this week. As a Jahvid Best owner I am seriously considering picking ML up. Not as a handcuff for this year, but next year and beyond. Best is explosive when healthy, but this makes 3 concussions in 2 years and the one he had at Cal was ugly. This is one of the things I enjoy about dynasty leagues, having to not only think about this season but next one and the year after. I all ready have Ryan Williams on my IR (who plays behind an injury prone Beanie Wells), but Leshoure may be worth the sit long term. The Lions need a running game and Mikel was on almost everyone's rookie RB impact player list this year.
Another one of my rookie RBs is showing some promise, Delone Carter. Granted, the score was 62-7 so Indy had an intersquad scrimmage in the 2nd half but he has shown signs of life and Indy is a franchise who is not afraid to move a proven commodity when they think a young talent can step up in their place i.e. Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James.
News today was that Tim Hightower is out for the year with a torn ACL. Bad news for the former Cardinal who seemed to have found a home in Washington. Good news for me who has both Roy Helu and Ryan Torain on my roster. Mike Shanahan hates fantasy football and tries to play with our minds. Hopefully one of those two guys will take control and see the majority of the carries for the rest of the year. I personally hope it is Helu so I can cut Torain loose.
I am excited about the young talent on my team. I may try and move a combination of Schaub, Michael Turner and/or Andre Johnson this off season for some rookie draft picks or other younger talent. I always try and trade a player while he may have 1-2 years left of production so that I can get something out of him. I traded MJD away last year (not the top 5 back he used to be). I have Shonn Greene and a stable of young RBs and a WR trio of Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Hakeem Nicks. Long term success in a Dynasty League is finding that fine balance between veteran production and young potential. Lets cross our fingers and see.
I picked up Christian Ponder for Kevin Kolb on the waiver wire. Ponder looked ok in his start against Green Bay and Kolb has looked anything but. Being a Cardinal fan I hope he turns it around but this is fantasy land. So I now have Ponder and Andy Dalton along with Matt Schaub. Not bad for this year and hopefully going forward.
Another owner dropped Mikel Leshoure this week. As a Jahvid Best owner I am seriously considering picking ML up. Not as a handcuff for this year, but next year and beyond. Best is explosive when healthy, but this makes 3 concussions in 2 years and the one he had at Cal was ugly. This is one of the things I enjoy about dynasty leagues, having to not only think about this season but next one and the year after. I all ready have Ryan Williams on my IR (who plays behind an injury prone Beanie Wells), but Leshoure may be worth the sit long term. The Lions need a running game and Mikel was on almost everyone's rookie RB impact player list this year.
Another one of my rookie RBs is showing some promise, Delone Carter. Granted, the score was 62-7 so Indy had an intersquad scrimmage in the 2nd half but he has shown signs of life and Indy is a franchise who is not afraid to move a proven commodity when they think a young talent can step up in their place i.e. Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James.
News today was that Tim Hightower is out for the year with a torn ACL. Bad news for the former Cardinal who seemed to have found a home in Washington. Good news for me who has both Roy Helu and Ryan Torain on my roster. Mike Shanahan hates fantasy football and tries to play with our minds. Hopefully one of those two guys will take control and see the majority of the carries for the rest of the year. I personally hope it is Helu so I can cut Torain loose.
I am excited about the young talent on my team. I may try and move a combination of Schaub, Michael Turner and/or Andre Johnson this off season for some rookie draft picks or other younger talent. I always try and trade a player while he may have 1-2 years left of production so that I can get something out of him. I traded MJD away last year (not the top 5 back he used to be). I have Shonn Greene and a stable of young RBs and a WR trio of Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Hakeem Nicks. Long term success in a Dynasty League is finding that fine balance between veteran production and young potential. Lets cross our fingers and see.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Big Talk Small Walk
Back in 2006, when Tiger Woods was the best golfer on the planet, the Accenture Match Play was upcoming and a PGA journeyman named Stephen Ames was set to play the #1 player in the world. When asked of his chances, Ames responded "anything can happen, especially where he is hitting the ball." Why on earth you would call out Tiger is beyond me. Woods proceeded to go out and make 6 straight birdies to start his round and beat Ames 9 and 8 in a historic first round drubbing. For those non-golfers, Tiger won the first 9 holes and after tying the 10th, his day was done as Ames was 9 down with 8 holes to play, in other words the mercy rule was instigated after only playing half of the holes. Tiger hinted the comments may have lit a fire under him. When asked how they made him feel, in typical Tiger fashion he responded "9 and 8."
Fast forward to 2011 where Nyjer Morgan, or his alter ego T-Plush, decided it would be a good idea to call Albert Pujols, the best baseball player on the planet, Alberta an refer to him as a she on Twitter. Uhh, newsflash Nyjer, have you seen the size of Albert Pujols? Baseball aside, I would not want to tick him off. From a baseball perspective, Plush needs to learn when to shut his mouth. That is why is was very ironic, and comical, when in Game 2 of the NLCS, Pujols essentially beat the Brewers by himself. He had 4 extra base hits, 1 home run and 3 doubles, and drove in 5. One of his doubles must have been especially satisfying as he sent Morgan turning round and round crashing into the center field wall, watch it here. I think at the end Shawn Marcum is looking out to center field saying "Thanks a lot Plush. Keep your mouth shut next time."
Guys like Morgan are the players you love to hate. If any Cardinal pitcher puts a ball in his ear he would be my new favorite player. While he brings some good energy, I think T-Plush needs to be banned from MLB.
Fast forward to 2011 where Nyjer Morgan, or his alter ego T-Plush, decided it would be a good idea to call Albert Pujols, the best baseball player on the planet, Alberta an refer to him as a she on Twitter. Uhh, newsflash Nyjer, have you seen the size of Albert Pujols? Baseball aside, I would not want to tick him off. From a baseball perspective, Plush needs to learn when to shut his mouth. That is why is was very ironic, and comical, when in Game 2 of the NLCS, Pujols essentially beat the Brewers by himself. He had 4 extra base hits, 1 home run and 3 doubles, and drove in 5. One of his doubles must have been especially satisfying as he sent Morgan turning round and round crashing into the center field wall, watch it here. I think at the end Shawn Marcum is looking out to center field saying "Thanks a lot Plush. Keep your mouth shut next time."
Guys like Morgan are the players you love to hate. If any Cardinal pitcher puts a ball in his ear he would be my new favorite player. While he brings some good energy, I think T-Plush needs to be banned from MLB.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Fantasy Land
Hi, my name is Steve and I am addicted to Fantasy Football/Basketball. Yes, like a good majority of the American public I partake of the weekly ritual known as Fantasy Football. I am currently in 2 leagues right now. I am not proud of only being in 2 leagues, but hey, I figure I had better win one of those before broadening my horizons. One of my leagues is a Dynasty League that I have been a part of for 5 or 6 years now. For those few unfamiliar with Dynasty Leagues, in Year 1, you draft like any other fantasy draft. At the end of the year you actually get to keep your entire roster and in the spring you have a rookie draft rather than a complete re-draft. The nice part of this type of league is that you get to see the fruits of your draft for multiple years. Unless you are like me.
Now let me clarify, it is not because I have had bad drafts. I have drafted rookies such as LeSean McCoy, Rashard Mendenhall, Beanie Wells, Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe, Dez Bryant and Jahvid Best. For those keeping track, that is a pretty stout fantasy roster. Except I get bored. I pretty much blow up my entire team every year and watch the rookies I draft become studs on someone else's team. So yeah, last year I watched from the sidelines as Dwayne Bowe and LeSean McCoy marched their respective teams deep into the playoffs. So I'd like to think I have a pretty good eye for talent when it comes to these things. For those who have never been in a rookie draft, finding any type of impact player after the first round is difficult. You are drafting sleepers who will not be on any fantasy roster past Week 2.
Well this year I am turning over a new leaf. For the 2011 season we cut our fantasy rosters down from 30 to 21. I was in favor of this move bc it forces the owners to decide which rookies are worth keeping while letting that veteran go. For example, I drafted Julio Jones but let Hines Ward go. It doesn't take any GM skill to hold on to a rookie with 15 bench spots. Since we had such huge roster cuts to make, there was a lot of wheeling and dealing of players just to get something for nothing. For example, I traded Arian Foster for Michael Turner, Shonn Greene and Andre Johnson.
I actually ended up with the #1 pick through a trade and took Julio Jones. Now, hindsight, AJ Green would have been the better pick. But I would rather have Matt Ryan and the Atlanta front office vs Andy Dalton and the Cincy front office. Jones hasn't been a bust, but Green has put up some big numbers. So we'll have to see how this all plays out. My normal draft spot was #4 and I took Ryan Williams, RB Cardinals. Well, all I can say is thank goodness for the IR spot. I also ended up with Roy Helu, Delone Carter and Kendall Hunter. All solid RBs who were drafted into decent fantasy options. Keep in mind, we draft with an eye for the future.
So here is my current roster:
QB - Matt Schaub, Kevin Kolb
RB - Turner, Greene, Best, Torrain, Helu, Carter, Hunter
WR - Andre Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones
TE - JerMichael Finley, Todd Heap
K - John Kasey
Def - San Diego
I have decided that I need a QB. Schaub is serviceable and Kolb is a huge what if. But with the emergence of the Houston run game, Schaub can put up 30 points one week and 15 the next. Overall though I like my mix of young talent and veteran producers. Right now I am 2-3 having played 3 out of the top 5 teams in the league. Time to go set my roster!!
Good night everyone.
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Now let me clarify, it is not because I have had bad drafts. I have drafted rookies such as LeSean McCoy, Rashard Mendenhall, Beanie Wells, Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe, Dez Bryant and Jahvid Best. For those keeping track, that is a pretty stout fantasy roster. Except I get bored. I pretty much blow up my entire team every year and watch the rookies I draft become studs on someone else's team. So yeah, last year I watched from the sidelines as Dwayne Bowe and LeSean McCoy marched their respective teams deep into the playoffs. So I'd like to think I have a pretty good eye for talent when it comes to these things. For those who have never been in a rookie draft, finding any type of impact player after the first round is difficult. You are drafting sleepers who will not be on any fantasy roster past Week 2.
Well this year I am turning over a new leaf. For the 2011 season we cut our fantasy rosters down from 30 to 21. I was in favor of this move bc it forces the owners to decide which rookies are worth keeping while letting that veteran go. For example, I drafted Julio Jones but let Hines Ward go. It doesn't take any GM skill to hold on to a rookie with 15 bench spots. Since we had such huge roster cuts to make, there was a lot of wheeling and dealing of players just to get something for nothing. For example, I traded Arian Foster for Michael Turner, Shonn Greene and Andre Johnson.
I actually ended up with the #1 pick through a trade and took Julio Jones. Now, hindsight, AJ Green would have been the better pick. But I would rather have Matt Ryan and the Atlanta front office vs Andy Dalton and the Cincy front office. Jones hasn't been a bust, but Green has put up some big numbers. So we'll have to see how this all plays out. My normal draft spot was #4 and I took Ryan Williams, RB Cardinals. Well, all I can say is thank goodness for the IR spot. I also ended up with Roy Helu, Delone Carter and Kendall Hunter. All solid RBs who were drafted into decent fantasy options. Keep in mind, we draft with an eye for the future.
So here is my current roster:
QB - Matt Schaub, Kevin Kolb
RB - Turner, Greene, Best, Torrain, Helu, Carter, Hunter
WR - Andre Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones
TE - JerMichael Finley, Todd Heap
K - John Kasey
Def - San Diego
I have decided that I need a QB. Schaub is serviceable and Kolb is a huge what if. But with the emergence of the Houston run game, Schaub can put up 30 points one week and 15 the next. Overall though I like my mix of young talent and veteran producers. Right now I am 2-3 having played 3 out of the top 5 teams in the league. Time to go set my roster!!
Good night everyone.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Trading and Golf
I am a huge golfer. Have been for most of my life and for a time was playing semi-competitively. Not professionally :), just some amateur stuff. There is one concept in golf that it extremely hard for a player to accept. You will make a bogey, often more than one, in every round. That is just a fact. Very rarely do even the best in the world play 18 holes of golf with no bogeys. Even the pros have come to accept that bogeys are inevitable. What they try to avoid is the big number, the 7 or 8. Those holes can derail a round and a tournament in the blink of an eye.
Trading is no different. I hate to be the one to break the bad news, but you will not win 100% of the trades you place. Losing trades are inevitable. They happen to even the best in the world. What each and every one of the best traders in the world will tell you though is that you cut your losses short. Nothing kills the career of a trader faster than the trade that blows up the account. If you keep your losing trades to a bogey, you live to fight another day. If your losing trade becomes a 7 or 8, you miss the cut and don't get paid.
All a golfer can do is hit the shot the way he wants too, the outcome is out of his control. In much the same way, all a trader can do is place trades according to the trading plan he/she has set up. The outcome of that trade is 100% out of their control. Stick to your trading plan and minimize those losses to bogeys.
Lots of sports happenings since the last post. I'll touch on some of that tomorrow.
Good night everyone.
Trading is no different. I hate to be the one to break the bad news, but you will not win 100% of the trades you place. Losing trades are inevitable. They happen to even the best in the world. What each and every one of the best traders in the world will tell you though is that you cut your losses short. Nothing kills the career of a trader faster than the trade that blows up the account. If you keep your losing trades to a bogey, you live to fight another day. If your losing trade becomes a 7 or 8, you miss the cut and don't get paid.
All a golfer can do is hit the shot the way he wants too, the outcome is out of his control. In much the same way, all a trader can do is place trades according to the trading plan he/she has set up. The outcome of that trade is 100% out of their control. Stick to your trading plan and minimize those losses to bogeys.
Lots of sports happenings since the last post. I'll touch on some of that tomorrow.
Good night everyone.
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